Category Archives: Disaster

Biotechnology, Disaster

How Realistic Is “The Crazies”?

Leave a comment

Popular Mechanics evaluated the science of The Crazies yesterday.


As PM describes it, “a genetically engineered toxin created by the military escapes into the water supply of idyllic Ogden Marsh, Iowa, transforming the town’s residents into a bloody, infected horde.”  In other words, it is a zombie movie.


The premise is not implausible: the filmmakers consulted the CDC and based the disease on tetanus, rabies, and Stevens-Johnson Syndrome.  With enough work, one probably could engineer a toxin that would short out behavioral control and induce rage.


As the virus spreads, the government takes drastic, Outbreak-style quarantine measures, sealing the town off.  While it would take a highly threatening disease to trigger this kind of action,  it is imaginable.  Quarantines have a legal basis, and a horrific, contagious disease might trigger a radical approach.


(Image copyright Futuristmovies.com — usable with link and permission)

Follow on Twitter: @Geofutures

Apocalypse, Disaster

Charting the Apocalypse

Leave a comment

Chanda Phelan has a great piece on Io9 about how apocalypses have evolved, complete with a graphical timeline.  She finds that the balance continually shifts between natural, human-induced, supernatural, and unexplained ends of the world.


Phelan argues that the genre have deeply optimistic undertones: “Stories of the End have never been about ending – they’re about the beginning that comes after.”


It isn’t clear from the article how “apocalypse” is defined, but seems to entail some drastic disruption to society, though not necessarily full destruction of the world or of humanity.  (See this post for a scale of apocalypse.)


Curiously, in charting 423 instances over the last 200 years, she does not include movies, though movies surely dominate the public consciousness of ways humanity might come to an end.


(Image copyright FuturistMovies.com — usable with attribution and link)

Follow on Twitter: @Geofutures


Disaster, Futurism

Fun with Apocalypses: 2012

Leave a comment

Mayan templeA journalist recently asked me to comment as a futurist on the supposed disaster that some foresee for 2012.


In the Drake Magazine article “The Sky Is Falling” (under Features) I am quoted as saying:

Not everyone reading into the Mayan calendar sees the end of the world. Josh Calder …. doesn’t think anything will happen. To him, the Mayan-calendar madness is just another in a long line of end of the world theories. As a futurist, Calder’s job is to predict the future for corporations and government agencies. When examining trends in consumer behavior or national security, the 2012 date has never come up in his work. “Full destruction might be achieved by an astronomical event or a physics accident, but both of these seem a very low probability,” he says.


Calder believes worrying about 2012 is a waste of time and energy. “There has never been any solid evidence of magical foreknowledge of the future,” he says. “It is illogical to think that this will suddenly change.” Astronomically, he says the end of the world is set for billions of years in the future and, though he knows of a few ways we could be in trouble, Calder doesn’t seem too worried. “With luck, we will avoid them,” he says.


Image courtesy Torley (Flickr)

Apocalypse, Disaster, Science fiction

Apocalypse in 7 Not-so-easy Steps

3 Comments

Open the Future has devised an 7-level “apocalypse scale,” grading the threat to humanity and the planet of 7 levels of disaster.

Given the popularity of mega-disasters in movies, we can consider which of the levels have been depicted — or at least threatened — on screen.

LEVEL — SCALE
0 — Regional catastrophe
Movies depicting:

  • 28 Days Later

1 — Human die-back
Movies depicting:

  • The Day after Tomorrow
  • The Postman
  • The Road Warrior
  • Terminator

2 — Civilizational extinction
Movies depicting:

  • Deep Impact
  • 12 Monkeys — due to a madman aiming for a 3A
  • Planet of the Apes
  • The Matrix

3A — Human extinction–engineered
Movies depicting:

  • On the Beach — the apparently imminent fate of humanity after a nuclear war
  • Children of Men — global sterility of unknown cause
  • Independence Day — or so the aliens intend

3B — Human extinction–natural
Movies depicting:

  • none known

4 — Biosphere extinction
Movies depicting:

  • none known

5 — Planetary extinction
Movies depicting:

  • Armageddon — “nothing will survive” unless the giant asteroid is deflected, though a Texas-sized asteroid might be more like a level 4

X — Planetary elimination
Movies depicting:

  • Star Wars — Alderaan at the hands of the Death Star
Biotechnology, Disaster, Movies

Review: “Children of Men”

Leave a comment

FORECAST SUMMARY

Movie set in: 2027

Event / Likelihood
Universal sterility — low
Global flu pandemic — high


RATINGS
Overall rating: 6.8 (9th of 124 movies)

Futurism rating: 6
The movie is thoughtful but devotes most of its energy to the issues of today rather than the ramifications of its central premise.

Entertainment rating: 8
Tense and uncompromising, and serious about everything it depicts, Children of Men is a well-made movie.

Plausibility rating: 7
There are ways something like this could occur, and the effects might be much like those shown.


Approach to the future
Backdrop for storytelling that takes it cues from our own time.


TOPICS DEPICTED

Universal sterility
No children have been born since 2009, and an 18-year-old Argentine holds the title of “world’s youngest person.”


The cause is unknown–biotechnology is mentioned as a possibility–but the effects have been dire: without new generations to give life meaning, most societies have collapsed, and only Britain seems to have remained intact.


Such an event is unlikely but possible, and the possibility is rising as the reach of technologies grows. The three most likely routes are chemicals, biotechology, and nanotechnology.


We use thousands of chemicals, and introduce more every day, and the precise effects of each one of them are unknown. Some are suspected of being dangerous to health, including reproductive health, and have spread to every corner of the planet. In the developed world, the remains of pharmaceuticals are now extremely widespread in drinking water.


Biotechnology is spreading, with only partial regulation, and most humans now consume genetically engineered food products. While it seems unlikely that they would have drastic effects, the potential for accidents will grow if pharming–using agriculture to produce drugs–becomes widespread.


A newly emerging threat is nanotechnology. Nanotechnological materials are being produced on a mass scale and used in many consumer products, with very little understanding of their interaction with human health or the environment.


Some suggest that we should heed the fate of frogs: the are in decline around the planet, and we don’t know why. If we’ve done something to them, we might be doing it to ourselves as well.


Flu pandemic
A flu pandemic strikes in 2008, though its scale is not clear.


This is nearly inevitable.


A pandemic flu, such as avian flu, could strike at any time. Effects could be relatively mild, but some forecast death tolls of 80 million or even higher.


Such a calamity would shake the global system and could destabilize some fragilie societies.