All posts by A Futurist at the Movies

A Futurist at the Movies is written by Josh Calder, a futurist living in Washington, DC. For more about Josh, see "Who am I?" or contact him here.

On the way to Gattaca?

Britain will allow pre-implantation genetic screening of embryos, to avoid use of those who might develop cancer in adulthood.  This marks an escalation from previous policy, which only allowed screening for fatal childhood diseases.

An ethicist at the British Medical Association denied that this was a stop down the “slippery slope.

“We do not see that today’s decision is moving towards ‘designer babies.’ There is a world of difference between a parent not wanting their child to develop breast cancer and someone wanting a child with blue eyes and blond hair.”

However, it is a world of difference marked by small and debatable gradations:

Some experts fear that as scientists discover genes affecting traits such as obesity, addiction, intelligence or height, a market in elective embryo screening may emerge — backed by evidence that selected children would be healthier, happier and more successful.

There is no clear line to be drawn.  Is it at schizophrenia?  Depression?  Homosexuality?  Some parents would act to prevent any of those, and myriad other conditions, in their child.

And what if the cancer-causing genes could be fixed?  Would that not be preferable to discarding the embryos?

Ultimately, this is another step toward the Gattaca future of genetic improvement of humans.

Incidentally, the article notes that this is not unique to Britain:

Similar embryo screening tests have been used in the United States for years. But because they are not regulated or tracked, no one knows how often they are performed or the full range of conditions being screened for.

The Internet on film

A WSJ article has some interesting tidbits on how the Internet has been depicted in movies; some of the factors discussed drive how aspects of the future are dealt with as well.

Ten years after “Mission: Impossible,” Hollywood still has a spotty track record when it comes to portraying computers and the Internet. Some portrayals are so absurd as to leave viewers wondering if the film’s producers use the same Internet they do.

(Via Boing Boing)

“Live the Future” in Dubai

The Washington Post‘s Anthony Shadid has a fascinating article about Dubai, the strange vision of the future materializing on the shores of the Persian Gulf.

Using the clean slate of desert shores — and unconstrained by democracy or citizen participation — the Dubaians are pursuing a futuristic vision worthy of the movies.

For instance, construction is under way on Dubailand, a three billion square foot amusement park; that’s three times the size of Manhattan.  An indoor snow-skiing resort has opened.  It is all reminiscent of the city seen in A.I. — Artificial Intelligence.  (There are more precise parallels as well: Shadid reports that prostitution is fairly open in Dubai.  In a puritanical region, it is another distinction that can attract expatriates and tourists.)

Like any good futurist vision, Dubai is hardly utopian:

At the heart of what Dubai and its globalization are creating, two cities overlap. One is a dystopic, even soulless vision of the future, where notions of civil society, individual rights and identity are subsumed in the logic of capital. The other is a rare triumph of the private sector in an Arab city that provides a model for prosperity and a force for integration.

(The potential role as a model also makes it politically interesting.)

Dubai is trying to become a global center for many kinds of economic activity:

There is Media City, Internet City, Knowledge Village and plans for Dubai Outsource Zone, Dubai Techno Park and Dubai Biotechnology and Research Park, among others. There are no taxes, no customs, no restrictions on transferring funds, little red tape — in short, a capitalist free-for-all.

That could make it the kind of place to pursue many activities frowned on elsewhere, from infotech hacking to human cloning.

Recreating extinct animals

Wired reports on an effort to recreate the genomes of extinct animals.

Last year, scien­tists working with physical DNA specimens published the sequence of a big chunk of a genetic code extracted from a frozen woolly mammoth bone. Another team recovered 40,000-year-old DNA fragments from cave bears. Other groups have gone after the DNA of extinct plants, insects, and even dinosaurs.

Though significant obstacles remain, even the Jurassic Park scenario is now seen as at least possible:

Hendrik Poinar of Canada’s McMaster University and his father, George, an expert on amber-preserved biological samples, were consultants to Steven Spielberg on Jurassic Park. “People kept asking us, ‘Is this ever going to happen?’ and we would say, ‘No, it’s never going to happen,'” Poinar recalls. “But the picture is somewhat different now.”

Ultimately, we could end up in Blade Runner territory: according to one scientist, “within the next couple of centuries humans should be able to make any creature they want.”

Disaster: preparing for an outbreak

The US government is finalizing plans to respond to a flu pandemic, the Washington Post reports. The plans include everything from increasing Internet capacity to handle mass telecommuting to having other nations print American currency if US mints are unable to operate.

An unfolding pandemic has not been fully depicted in film. The closest movies have come is Outbreak, but that differed from likely flu scenarios in a number of ways.

On the positive side, flu is never 100% fatal, and typically has quite low mortality rates. (Avian flu is thought to have much higher than normal mortality, but there is some uncertainty about this.) On the negative side, the disease in that movie was confined to one small town, while a flu outbreak will almost certainly be widespread.

The plans under discussion anticipate “an 18-month crisis” that in the “worst-case scenario could kill 1.9 million Americans.” Anywhere near that level of mortality would strain economic and social systems, as any contact with other people could put one at risk of death. One Homeland Security official suggests that the National Guard might be needed in areas facing “insurrection.”